Hawkish U.S. politicians come and go, this Chinese giant is playing a much longer game.

美国的鹰派政客来来往往，而这个中国巨头正在玩一个更长的游戏。”

截止7月21日，本文在Forbes阅读量为37435人次

Yes, Trump Just Seriously Damaged Huawei—But This Isn’t Over Yet

Contributor: Zak Doffman

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We now have confirmation, if any was needed, that the U.K.’s decision to ban Huawei from its 5G network came as a direct result of pressure from U.S. President Trump and his security team. There was also the non-trivial issue of an about-turn in the advice from Britain’s spooks to its politicians—the risks with Huawei equipment could no longer be mitigated. This, again, was directly attributable to America’s campaign against the Chinese tech giant. On the surface, this may look like a victory for Washington, but it’s not that simple—Huawei is far from defeated.

The clear implication in the U.K. is that the Huawei decision is all about politics and has little to do with security. The U.K. cyber team charged with defending the realm from the threats associated with Chinese equipment have only changed their view because, at America’s insistence, U.S. components inside Huawei equipment are being replaced by (likely) Chinese equivalents. A change in the political winds—there’s a U.S. election now just a few months away —and both the lobbying and the supply chain restrictions could easily fall away.

This context behind the U.K.’s “materially” changed security report, that the change was fabricated by the U.S., is critical. Absent the latest sanctions, the U.K. advice would not have changed and the reason driving the U.K.’s reversal would not exist. The confirmation from leading chip supplier TSMC, that it will cease supplying Huawei in September per new U.S. rules, was also steeped in the implication that were those rules to soften or change, or were the company to successfully apply for a license to supply, than we’d be quickly back to normal.

Even the structure of the U.K.’s newly announced reversal is all about the detail. The decision to bar purchases of 5G equipment from next January leaves a sizeable procurement window wide open, and is designed to restrict the acquisition of standalone 5G kit rather than LTE-to-5G upgrades. The long grace period (until 2027) before a rip and replace is mandatory, and the silence on existing 3G and 4G equipment already deployed, have left many options on the table. If a week is a long time in politics, seven years is a lifetime.

Trump was quick to take credit for the U.K. decision, personalizing the victory, and it’s true that the president has campaigned long and hard to persuade his key defense and intelligence ally to toe the U.S. line. But Washington’s relationship with Beijing is starkly different to London’s. The U.S. can brush aside economic threats from China—neither can live without the other. A U.K. facing up to the harsh realities of a post-COVID Brexit is not in such a fortunate position. China issued further threats of “retaliation” in the wake of the Huawei decision. And that carries some weight in a country reliant on Chinese investments in infrastructure and technology, and with a huge install base of Huawei equipment.

Huawei’s U.K. PR chief, Ed Brewster, stressed during a charged BBC Newsnight interview last week, that the company’s mission in the U.K. continues. R&D investments and the decision, announced post the 5G reversal, to open new flagship stores should tell you all you need to know about where Huawei stands on its U.K. future. “We know that millions of people here in the U.K. love our products,” the company said on announcing the £10 million (\$12.5 million) investment. Hawkish U.S. politicians come and go, this Chinese giant is playing a much longer game.

The group of U.K. politicians that has lobbied its government hard for tougher sanctions on Huawei knows there is a risk of further changes as this story runs through November’s U.S. election and whatever fallout we see from inquiries into the origins of coronavirus and Beijing’s alleged misinformation. There is also a much wider technology stand-off, one that has now dragged the TikTok into the mix.

The U.S. is fast approaching a decision point as to just how far it wants to take this, before the implications on its own technology sector become much harder to sell back home. The headlines might be filled these days with news of new investments into India, but China is China, and it’s not going to be easily displaced as the world’s centre of tech manufacturing and the world’s hottest consumer market.

Stepping back from this seminal week in the battle between the U.S. and Huawei, it’s hard not to think that the U.K. has left the door ajar for further twists and turns. The decision is solely based on U.S. lobbying and sanctions, and the U.K. does not want to be left holding the check should the U.S. change its tone.

# 是的，特朗普刚刚重创了华为，但这远还没有结束... 作者：Zak Doffman
已经确认：在美国总统特朗普和他的安全团队压力下，英国决定会在时机恰当时禁止华为参与其5G网络建设。还有一个非常重要的问题，那就是英国的情报人员给政府提供的建议发生了180度转变，即华为设备的风险无法得到缓解。这又一次的胜利直接归因于美国对中国科技巨头的打击。从表面上看，这似乎是属于华盛顿的胜利，但真相没有那么简单——华为远未被击败。

英国方面的意思很清楚：针对华为的决定完全是出于政治，与安全几乎没有什么关系。英国负责保卫国家免受与中国设备相关的威胁的网络团突然改口否认华为，原因其实是在美国的坚持下，华为设备中的美国组件被中国的相似产品所替代（可能是）。然而，政治风向却会改变，美国大选近在眼前，政治游说和对实体管制清单都很容易消失。

更重要的是英国对安全报告做出“实质性”改变的背景——这一改变是由美国捏造的。假如没有最新的制裁措施，英国的态度就不会改变，推动英国逆转的原因将不复存在。领先的芯片供应商台积电（TSMC）确认将根据美国新规定于9月停止向华为供货，这也暗示着,倘若这些规定有丝毫松动，或者该公司成功申请了供应许可证，一切又会恢复常态。

甚至连英国最新宣布的反转都是关于具体的细节。 从明年1月起禁止购买5G设备的决定，留下了一个相当长的时间窗口用于采购。这项政策旨在限制购买完整的5G套件，但不包括从4G到5G的升级。设备的更新和更换需要足够长的时间，政策也必须要给足够长的缓冲期限（直到2027年）。已经部署好的3G和4G设备，则给了通信商很多选择空间。如果对于政治来说，七天是很长的一段时间，那么七年已经相当于一辈子了。

特朗普很快将赞扬了英国的决定，并认为这场胜利也是他的外交成果，诚然，总统已经做出长期而艰难的努力，以说服他的国防和情报盟友站到美国的战线上，但是华盛顿和北京的关系与北京和伦敦的关系截然不同。美国可以无视来自中国的经济威胁ーー两者都离不开对方。而英国没有那么幸运，在脱欧以及新冠病毒之后，英国正面对着严酷的现实。在英国做出对华为的决定之后，中国威胁会进行进一步的“报复”。对于一个依赖中国对基础设施和技术的进行投资，并且拥有庞大的华为设备安装基础的国家中，这个威胁具有一定的分量。

华为英国公关负责人埃德·布鲁斯特(Ed Brewster)上周在接受BBC新闻之夜(BBC Newsnight)采访时强调，该公司在英国的使命仍在继续。在5G问题的反转之后，华为宣布了研发投资并决定开设新旗舰店——关于华为在英国未来的立场，我想已经不言而喻了。该公司在宣布投资1000万英镑（折合1250万美元）时说：“我知道在英国有数百人喜爱我们的产品”。美国的鹰派政客来来往往，这个中国巨头正在玩一个更长的游戏。”

一直在努力游说政府对华为实施更严厉制裁的英国政界人士知道，事态有发生变化的危险。一方面11月即将进行美国大选，另一方面，我们在调查冠状病毒来源和以及北京所谓的虚假信息所导致的任何后果，都给未来埋下隐患。另外还有一场更广泛的技术对峙，这场对峙已经将字节跳动公司（TikTok）也拖入了泥潭。

这个问题（中美对峙）对美国国科技行业的影响使会使得美国的政策难以在国内继续推行，这迫使美国必须快速做出决定：在这个问题上美国究竟要走多远？ 这些天的头条新闻可能充斥着对印度的新投资，但中国就是中国，它不会轻易取代中国，成为世界科技制造业中心和世界上最热门的消费市场。

最后，我们再回头看看美国与华为战斗的这重要一周，我们很难不去想：英国已经为未来的混乱打开了半扇大门。这一决定完全基于美国的游说和制裁，如果美国变卦，英国不希望看到自己承担后果。




唠两句： 最近英国“反戈”，台积电断供，国人又把目光投向华为。

我找了找国外相关报道，结果充斥各个新闻门户的全是关于美国大选和新冠病毒，关于华为的只有几则简讯。大部分简讯其实是反华的，“义正言辞”地扯一些关于“国家安全”，“情报”之类的犊子。而长篇的文章很少，只看到这么一篇还算像样的。

中美对峙正影响到我们每一个人。
华为以及文中提到的字节跳动，是我不少学长的毕业去向。尤其是字节跳动，今年扩招4w员工让很多人意外，不少大四甚至大三学长已经拿到offer（我甚至怀疑字节跳动提供这么多岗位是在争取政府对它的支持）。而华为和字节跳动的未来是扑朔迷离的，这和中美关系息息相关。
中国的科技巨头们不大可能倒下，毕竟国内市场这么大，不至于被美国扼住喉咙，但是肯定会有波折，也许会裁员，也许会业绩下滑...中国能够对抗美国，但是对国内的公司（其实也包括美国一些公司），生存下来未必轻松。